The Tourism Council of Thailand came out yesterday with some bad news for Thailand’s tourism industry.

In an article in the Bangkok Post, EU Q4 arrival forecast plummets on downturn, the Tourism Council of Thailand had some really bad news that is most likely even worse than what is being reported.

Tourism Council of Thailand Dinosaurs

The EU’s economic woes will result in the number of European tourists to Thailand growing by only 5% in the fourth quarter, markedly down from an earlier projection of 20%, says the Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT).

Well, the 20% projection was totally fictional to begin with, so the numbers are actually much worse.

In the January-August period, European tourist arrivals rose by 29.6% to 2.52 million. Based on this, the TCT projected a 20% increase in the fourth quarter, which is the high tourism season, but the slump in Europe has now resulted in the 5% figure.

Bullshit.  The slump in Europe has been going on for almost 3 years so there is no way there was a 30% increase in arrivals.

The high growth earlier this year reflected the more stable political situation compared with last year’s rioting.

It may have been a little higher than April/May 2010, but no way is up 30% for the first 8 months of 2011.

“Next year’s arrival numbers will likely be static as the US dollar and the euro grow weaker while the baht and other Asian currencies strengthen. We’ll have to wait and see how the situation affects Thai tourism,” said Kongkrit Hiranyakit, the TCT’s president for policy and planning.

No.  Next year’s numbers will continue to decrease but the Tourism Council of Thailand and the Tourism Authority of Thailand will state that the numbers of tourism arrivals will reach over 20 million.

He said that with most of Europe declining, Russian and Asian markets would become more important.

People must not realize that this is a global economy and everyone is affected.  Things will slow down in China as America and Europe stop buying goods from there since they have no money.  Tourism Council of Thailand – read the writing on the wall.

“Average spending per head by tourists from Asia and Europe is similar at about 5,000 baht a night. However, the length of stay for Europeans is about 10 days, while for Asians it’s four. Therefore, the government and the Tourism and Sports Ministry need to offer more promotions in Asian and Russian markets to compensate for the decline of European market,” said Mr Kongkrit.

I know and have met quite a few folks from Europe that stay in Thailand way longer than 10 days.  There are some that get 2-3-4 months vacation time and spend the cold months at the beach in Thailand.  But, I doubt that this is going on now with the debt issues in Europe.

The council believes current developments will not affect the 2015 tourism revenue target of 2.2 trillion baht and arrivals forecast of 30 million.

How can they say this and how can anyone believe it?  Of course it will affect tourism.  It already has but the Tourism Council of Thailand, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports and the Tourism Authority of Thailand won’t admit it.

“Thai tourism, both domestic and international markets, grows by 7% per year on average. By 2015, international tourist arrivals will reach 27 million on revenue of 1.1 trillion baht,” he said.

Maybe in the past, but with a global recession going on 3 years, it ain’t gonna grow 7% – maybe decline 7%.  Oh, and your Prime Minister and her Pheu Thai Party want 30 million tourist arrivals by 2014 (HAHAHA).

This year, domestic tourism will see 91 million trips for revenue of 430 billion baht, while international tourist arrivals will account for 19 million trips for revenue of 700 billion baht.

Total crock of shit.  There is no way to determine how much is spent and Thailand will NOT see 19 million foreign tourist arrivals.

Sansern Ngaorungsi, the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s deputy governor for Asia and the South Pacific, said the advent of the Asean Economic Community in 2015 would benefit Thai tourism in terms of short-haul markets such as China, India, Russia and South Korea.

The AEC will NOT benefit Thailand since Thailand has done little or nothing to prepare for AEC 2015.

“These markets will help compensate the downturns in Europe and the US,” he said.

No, they won’t.  A tourist from China that spends 4 days in Thailand doesn’t spend what a US or European tourist does in 10-14 days.

The Tourism Council of Thailand, like the Tourism Authority of Thailand, is living in a land of make believe.

Tags: 2015 AEC asean asean economic community Ministry of Tourism and Sports tourism authority of thailand tourism council of thailand