This all started on 30 January 2012, with an article from Phuketwan, US Terror Alert Ending With A Whimper, a very deceiving headline that implied that the US emergency travel advisory for Thailand had been revoked.  They went so far as to say: “The US Embassy in Thailand has now quietly removed the terrorist warning to tourists in Bangkok from the front page of its online site . . . and perhaps it’s better that the misguided alert went with a whimper rather than a bang.”

Removed from the front page – yes – but all that was on the front page originally was a link to the Thailand emergency warning – which is still in effect.  The Phuketwan article is more an opinion piece and a place for the author to air his views on the country-specific travel alert system.

Thunderbirds

Then, on 2 February 2012, The Nation came up with an article, 13 nations urged to withdraw their travel advisory, which had this to say about the Thailand travel advisories:

Of the 21 countries that issued travel advisories, nine – namely the US, China, Germany, France, Israel, Brazil, Norway, Netherlands and Denmark – have either withdrawn or eased their warnings.

Now, this came as a huge surprise to me as I had not received any email messages from the U.S. Embassy in Bangkok that said that the travel advisory had been revoked or lessened.  Also surprising, is that if this were true, where is the HUGE HEADLINE proclaiming it.  With all the bitching and moaning that has gone on since it was issued on 13 January, one would think that this would be a major story at The Nation and/or The Bangkok Post.

This was followed up by another article in The Nation on 3 February, Withdraw travel warning, that was almost a word-for-word copy of the 2 February article.

Also on 3 February, the official Thai News Agency for the Thai Government, National News Bureau of Thailand, Public Relations Department, ran this article – Foreign Affairs Ministry: U.S. lifts terror alert in Thailand which stated:

BANGKOK, 3 February 2012 (NNT) – The Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs has reported that the United States revoked the terrorism alert in Thailand. Nine countries still warn their citizens of possible terrorist attacks.

This was also broadcast by the Thaivisa forum web site

I kept going back to the American Embassy web site and checked out the page with ALL the warnings – Emergency Messages and Announcements, and I see no change.  I still see the Emergency Message dated 13 January.  I don’t see anywhere listing a revocation or a downgrade of the alert.

The Nation continued with its daily message, Nine nations urged to lift travel – I guess they forgot how to spell alert or advisory – but this still falsely shows that the USA has removed its alert:

Britain, Australia, Austria, Taiwan, South Korea, Italy, Japan, Romania and Canada are still warning their citizens to be careful when visiting Thailand.

The British Foreign and Commonwealth Office are doing more than telling Brits to “be careful”.

The Phuket Gazette joined the party on 4 February with Phuket update: US lifts terror alert:

PHUKET: Good news for the Phuket tourism industry has come with the US warning of a possible terrorist threat in Bangkok having been removed from its website, where it had been on the main page.

It has NOT been removed from its website but it has been taken off of the front page – where it was only a summary with a link to the article in the first place.

The warning was replaced with a more general alert for East Asia. The new warning does not name any specific countries or places, but 14 other countries still have either travel advisories or alerts for Thailand.

Sorry, I don’t see this.  I do see a “World Wide Caution” issued on 24 January, but nothing else has changed.

OK, I just went to the horse’s mouth – the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Web Site and here is the LATEST from the MFA – – Developments regarding travel advisories and alerts issued for Thailand (as of 31 January 2012):

On 31 January 2012, Mr. Thani Thongphakdi, Director-General of the Department of Information and Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, gave an interview to the media on developments regarding travel advisories and alerts issued by some countries about the possible terrorist threat in Bangkok. Gist as follows:

1. Pursuant to the alert issued by the United States Embassy in Bangkok warning its nationals of a possible terrorist threat, at present the U.S. Embassy has removed the said warning from the main page of its website. On 24 January 2012, the United States has instead issued a worldwide caution on security threats and terrorist activities for various regions of the world. For East Asia, a general alert was issued without specifying any particular country including Thailand. This is considered a positive development.

2. As for other countries, over the past 2-3 days, three countries, namely, Austria, Norway and Brazil, have also revised their travel advisories and alerts for Thailand, removing reference to the said issue.  At present, there remain 14 countries which still retain their travel advisories and alerts on this matter. It should be noted, however, that these countries have not advised their nationals to avoid travelling to Bangkok or Thailand, but only provided information about the matter to their nationals.

3. In this connection, the Foreign Minister has directed the Ministry to provide the latest information on the current situation to countries which have retained their travel advisories and alerts for Thailand in order for them to consider revising their advisories and alerts. This matter has already been raised with some countries. In addition, the Foreign Minister and the Permanent Secretary for Foreign Affairs will also raise this issue with Ambassadors and/or Representatives of the European Union (E.U.) Member States in Thailand during their upcoming meeting on 2 February 2012.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is mixing apples and oranges.  The Worldwide Caution issued on 24 January is just that – a worldwide caution.  The EMERGENCY MESSAGE for Bangkok, issued on 13 January, is still in effect. One does not cancel or improve the other.  The Worldwide Caution DID NOT replace the EMERGENCY MESSAGE.

More misinformation from the almost English online news media in Thailand.

Thailand English News Media Ganging Up On American Embassy? is a post from: Khon Kaen

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An op-ed piece in the Bangkok post hits the nail on the head regarding the Bangkok bomb threat warning that was issued by the American Embassy in Bangkok, Thailand one week ago.

Kultida Samabuddhi is Deputy News Editor, Bangkok Post, and understands the failings of the Thailand Government and the desperate efforts to save a failing tourism industry.

FBI AGENT COMFORTS MAN IN RUBBLE OF MURRAH FEDERAL BUILDING

Keeping quiet about a threat is truly scary, shows that all that the Thailand Government cares about during this Bangkok Bomb Threat is TOURISM.

If we kept a record of the most frequently applied rationale the government has employed to justify its action or non-action, then “negative impact on tourism” should top the list.

Yep.  Thailand seems to want to just deport terrorists (like what was planned for Atris Hussein until the US stepped in) and keep everything quiet in Thailand so as not to disturb potential tourists.

Over the past week the government again bombarded the public with its “impact-on-tourism” chant, as it tried to justify the decision to keep silent (for almost a month!) about a possible terrorist attack in Thailand, an alert which the United States and Israel finally issued.

The Government in Thailand has looked absolutely foolish the past week telling lies, denying everything and deflecting blame to the United States.

“At that time [last December], Thailand, the US and Israel agreed to keep the matter secret because Thailand did not want it to become news, for fear that media reports could trigger a wave of panic that would affect the country’s tourism,” the just-replaced defence minister, Yutthasak Sasiprapa, said earlier this week.

I honestly don’t believe that the U.S. and Israel would have agreed to this.  More BS from the Thailand Government to shift blame to America.

Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul said he was disappointed by the foreign embassies’ move to issue a travel warning for Thailand because such warnings were damaging to the country’s tourism.

Foreign Minister Surapong damages the image of Thailand every time he opens his mouth.

I’m not going to discuss whether the terrorism threat is for real, or if this is just a conspiracy by some governments trying to expand their anti-terrorism operations to Thailand. I’m not going to debate whether confiscation on Jan 16 of a huge cache of bomb-making materials in Samut Sakhon was a set-up plot, either.

The terrorism threat is real and nothing was set up.  Bangkok was the target.

Regardless of whether this much-feared terrorism attack plot does or does not exist, the government should be handling matters in a more professional manner.

Considering they have been acting like the Keystone cops the past week, denying a threat existed, stating that all terrorists have left Thailand, and doing anything and everything possible to try to minimize the impact on tourism and failing miserably.

Instead of keeping tight-lipped for fear that tourists won’t come to Thailand, the government should communicate with the people in a way that makes them cautious, not panicky.

The Thai Government does not know how to do this.  This past week we have had a variety of different stories from the Prime Minister, the Deputy Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister, the Chief of Police, and the Supreme Commander of the Army – all contradictory and all wrong.

Thais and tourists should be informed about the situation: what the government is doing, how serious is the threat and what is being done to ensure public safety.

Which is what the American Embassy did – warn its citizens of the possibility of a bomb threat and to exercise caution.

This does not mean that the government or the security agencies have to reveal everything to the public and tourists.

Agreed.  Don’t give away any secrets or aid the enemy – but warn the public.

It is the government’s job to select messages that should be sent out in the interests of public safety, while withholding certain information so as to facilitate security operations and the investigation process.

Which the Thai Government failed to do.  They spent more time predicting that nothing would happen, that Bangkok was not the target, the everything was under control, and that there was no need to panic.  The problem is this is the same mantra that was used during the floods in 2011 and we all know how wrong the Thai Government was then.

Although the Thai authorities have repeatedly talked about security measures to ensure public safety over the past several days, this happened only after the US had alerted American citizens in Thailand that “foreign terrorists may be currently looking to conduct attacks against tourist areas in Bangkok in the near future”.

I have a friend that works on Khao San Road (KSR), one of the “targets” of suspected Hezbollah terrorist, Atris Hussein, and he told me that there has been no such increase in security except last night when the Minister of Tourism and Sports visited KSR to show tourists how supposedly safe it was.

In fact, the Yingluck Shinawatra government’s handling of the terrorism warning is not unprecedented. Past governments also resorted to the cover-up policy in dealing with emergency issues.

And then the damage control kicks in to try minimize the impact.  Deny, deflect and wait for the issue to die.

Delays in the confirmation of disease outbreaks, such as bird flu in 2004 and H1N1 influenza in 2009 and other natural disasters were also partly due to the authorities’ fears that such warnings would negatively affect tourism.

The Thailand Government has this misconception that no one outside of Thailand has any idea what goes on within.  They fail to understand the online media, especially Facebook, Twitter and YouTube where bullshit can be spotted and reported instantaneously.

We don’t know how many more incidents will be concealed by the government in order to protect the tourism industry and maybe even to save its own face for failing to ward off such mishaps.

Many, many, many.  The Thailand Government will not learn from this.  If any other type of disaster strikes in Thailand, it will the same old, same old.

We we can only pray that this “keep quiet” tactic won’t lead to a major catastrophe or tragedy that could have been prevented had the public been alerted beforehand.

What would have happened if a bomb had been deployed on Khao San Road and the Thailand Government didn’t reveal what it had known?  How much of an impact on tourism would that have created?

Since the tourism industry is Thailand’s major source of revenue and involves a vast number of workers, it is understandable why the bureaucrats and politicians are so paranoid about any incident that may scare away tourists.

I don’t think it is the major source of revenue, but it surely is up in the top 10.  If the Tourism Authority of Thailand knew how to market to foreign tourists and knew how to get the message out correctly via Social Media, the impact would be minimal.

The tourism industry and those who are working in the hospitality business deserve utmost protection, but the government must not sacrifice public safety for the sake of more tourism revenues and higher numbers of tourist arrivals.

Which is precisely what the Government in Thailand is doing – putting tourism over terrorism.  The failure of the Thailand Government will also cause numerous tourist cancellations.

They should bear in mind that if really bad things happen _ be it a terrorist attack, an outbreak of infectious disease or a natural disaster _ the loss to life and property could be far greater than the cost of damage to tourism.

Exactly.  But, the Thailand Government always thinks that it won’t happen in Thailand.  That Thailand is immune to everything.  They tell so many lies, that they begin to believe them.

The more the government covers up information that affects public safety, the less credibility it will have in the eyes of tourists and the international community.

Credibility is gone already.  It started to go down the drain during the Thailand floods and is now completely gone with this terrorism cover-up.  Let’s see how many lies about investors returning to Thailand and tourist numbers soaring when the reality is just the opposite.  Wait until Thailand gets slammed by its 9 ASEAN partners in 2015 when the ASEAN Economic Community begins.

Maybe the biggest threat to Thailand’s tourism at the moment is not terrorism but the government’s attempts to protect the industry by keeping tourists uninformed and the Thai authorities’ failure to communicate with the public about emergency issues.

The Thailand Government looking like complete idiots while doing so.

Tourism Over Terrorism is a post from: Khon Kaen

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For about one week now we have been told by the Thailand Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, Chief of Police, and the Supreme Commander of the Army that “everything is under control”, “there is no need to panic”, and “all the terrorists have departed Thailand”.

The Big Cheeses have been silent the past couple of days leaving their underlings to insert their feet into their mouths over the bomb threat in Thailand.  But, we haven’t heard from the Thai Government Tourism Organizations – until yesterday.

Chumpol Silpa-archa Minister of Tourism and Sports

It had to happen. The Minister of Tourism and Sports (MOTS), Chumpol Silpa-archa is the first to fire a volley at the American Ambassador in Thailand, Kristie Kenney, over the emergency warning issued one week ago on Friday the 13th warning American citizens of the possibility of a bomb threat in Bangkok and to exercise caution if visiting touristy places like Khao San Road.

A few days ago, the Prime Minister of Thailand, Yingluck Shinawatra, requested that the U.S. Government remove the warning since one suspected Hezbollah terrorist, Atris Hussein, had been captured and after interrogation, Mr. Hussein led the Thailand Police to a warehouse with over 4,000 kilograms of fertilizer and some ammonium nitrate – bomb making materials.

Mr. Hussein assured the Thailand Police that the warehouse was only used for storage and onward transit of bombs to other countries, and that Bangkok was not a target.  Unlike the Thailand Government, I don’t put much stock in what Mr. Hussein says.  Just yesterday he started claiming that he is totally innocent and that the Mossad planted the bomb making materials at his fan export storage warehouse.

So, since none of this bullshit news has helped convince foreign tourists that Bangkok, Thailand is safe to travel to, Khun Chumpol has decided to take matters into his own hands.  He got up the balls last night to visit Khao San Road, under heavy Thai Police escort, to assure the backpackers that everything was OK.  I am sure that his words fell on deaf ears.

But, Khun Chumpol has a master plan to force the American Ambassador in Bangkok to remove the warning that Bangkok is a possible terrorist target – Khun Chumpol will form a committee.  I know that Ambassador Kenney is shaking in her boots!

From the Bangkok Post, Police hunt second terrorist:

Mr Chumpol planned to set up a committee to find ways to deal with any problems if the US refuses to revoke its travel warning, Mr Watchara said.

Mr. Chumpol can do whatever he wants and it will have no affect on the Thailand travel warning.  This is the same guy that proclaimed during the 2011 floods in Thailand “the flooding is having no real impact on the tourism sector” and guess what – he is saying the same thing about the bomb threat travel advisories.  From the Thai Financial Post, Chumpol believes terror alert will not affect tourism:

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Tourism and Sports Chumpol Silapa-archa has expressed confidence that the US’s terror alert will not damage Thai tourism, citing steady growth in tourist arrivals and revenue.

Khun Chumpol was totally wrong about the impact during the floods as tourism sank in October, November, and December.  The December numbers must be horrendous as the Department of Tourism has yet to post them on their official web site.

The bomb threat warning will definitely have a serious impact on tourism no matter what Chumpol says.  I am sure that many Chinese have canceled their plans to visit Bangkok during Chinese New Year.

But, Chumpol will save tourism in Thailand with his almighty committee.  He will do what the Prime Minister was unable to accomplish.  I can see it now.  When the American Embassy and the U.S. Government has determined it prudent to remove the warning, they will.  And, Chumpol and his committee will take the credit and announce that tourist arrivals in Bangkok, Thailand have broken all previous records.

Minister Of Tourism And Sports Challenges American Ambassador In Bangkok is a post from: Khon Kaen

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It appears that Thailand wants its terror cake and wants to eat it too. Recent events in Bangkok show that Thailand wants to sweep terrorism out the door in favor of tourism.

On Friday the 13th, January 2012, the American Embassy sent out an Emergency Message to U.S. citizens via email and their web site informing Westerners of a possible bomb threat in Bangkok.  This set off a flurry of denials, contradictions, and lies from the Thailand Government.

Bangkok Bomb Threat Hezbollah Atris Hussein

From the Prime Minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, to the Deputy Prime Minister, Chalerm Yoobamrung, Deputy Prime Minister in charge of security affairs Kowit Wattana, National Police chief Priewpan Damapong, Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul, and Defence Minister Yutthasak Sasiprapha, all we have heard for the past four days is that “everything is under control”, “don’t panic”, “all the terrorists have departed Thailand”, “America disappointed Thailand by issuing an emergency warning”, and all the other political rhetoric of denial, deflection, and pointing the finger at the United States for damaging tourism and the image of Thailand.

Trying to sift through what is real and what is dreamed up by the Thai Government over the past four days, it is now being reported that this entire affair is the fault of the United States of America.  So says Thailand.

From what I can gather, Thai Officials, acting on intelligence from the USA and Israel, arrested a suspected Hezbollah terrorist, Atris Hussein, on 12 January 2012.  The intelligence had Hezbollah pegged in December and their movements were supposedly tracked by the Thai Security Forces.  Atris Hussein was arrested at Suvarnabhumi International Airport trying to leave Thailand and this is when all the confusion started.

Conflicting reports put the arrest date at 12 or 13 January, one before the US Embassy issued their alert, and the other after.  I believe that Atris Hussein was captured on the 12th prompting the alert since there were supposedly other Hezbollah bad guys still in Thailand.  The claim by Atris Hussein and by other journalists that Hussein fled because of the alert posted by the US Embassy is ludicrous.

Today we find out that Thailand wanted to immediately deport Atris Hussein but the United States of America wanted him held and interrogated.  This has not been confirmed and the local new media, Bangkok Post cites an unnamed source in the article Police seize chemicals cache:

A source at the Immigration Bureau said the US wants to use Thailand as a base to destroy terrorist networks, which would not benefit Thailand.

The source said the arrest of the Lebanese-Swedish suspect was at the behest of Israeli authorities.

Thailand actually could have revoked the suspect’s visa and deported him straight away.

But as it happened, the suspect was held in detention because the US wanted him detained, which could spell trouble for Thailand.

“When the suspect was arrested, he was not deemed guilty of any offences.

“But police now have to detain him after the US issued a warning about possible terror attacks in Bangkok, which became big news,” the source said.

The source said the US wanted the suspect and wanted to use Thai law to investigate and expand terrorism investigations, although Thai police had not determined if Mr Atris was linked to any terrorist network. The source also questioned if the seizure of the explosive materials in Samut Sakhon was a set-up to further detain Mr Atris in Thailand.

It is almost beyond belief that the Bangkok Post has printed this.  The “source” is unnamed and supposedly works for Thai Immigration.  Most of what he has said sounds like personal opinion and again points the finger at the USA.  And, all this was said after they found all the explosive material – hinting that it might have been a set up.  Get real.

This all comes down to money and face.  Thailand wanted to keep this hush-hush but also had an obligation to America and Israel to try to catch the bad guys.  They caught Atris Hussein and wanted to deport him, and not make public that a Hezbollah terrorist was on Thai soil.  Can’t damage the image of Thailand and scare tourists away.   Catch a bad guy and then send him off to commit terrorist activities elsewhere.  No harm, no foul.

America and Israel think a little differently.  The US and Israel know what it is like to be on the receiving end of terrorist attacks.  Both countries also realize that the War On Terrorism is GLOBAL.  When bad guys are caught, these countries like to interrogate the prisoners to hopefully find out more information to prevent additional attacks.  Thailand chooses to keep it quiet and send the guy home.  Being a country where bomb making materials are stored, but not used, is OK for the Thai Government.

As long as there is “unrest” in the South of Thailand and it doesn’t move north, a blind eye is turned.  Nine years of terrorism in Yala, Songkhla, Pattani, and Narathiwat resulted in over 5,000 dead at the hands of TERRORISTS.  Calling them insurgents and calling it unrest and calling it a local problem that Thailand can handle, doesn’t change what it really is – terrorism.

But, Thailand is trying to have it both ways.  Deny there are terrorists in Thailand since there are no bombings in Bangkok but allow a warehouse full of explosive materials to function with impunity.  If the US hadn’t stepped in and insisted on interrogation, Atris Hussein would have been on his merry way and would have been replaced by another from Hezbollah.

Thailand doesn’t want to piss off the bad guys and have another Bali in Bangkok.  They would rather just keep it quiet so as not to scare tourists and lose tourist revenue than help other countries fight the war on terrorism

I have no idea where the “source” got his information that the U.S. wants to use Thailand as a base to fight terrorist networks, but I am sure that anything and everything he said was NOT verified by anyone anywhere.  Thailand doesn’t want to fight terrorism – they are happy that it is contained to a few provinces in the South and happy to deport terrorists instead of incarcerating them.

Another thing I noticed is in the photo from The Nation above.  Look at the security agent at the right side and notice his hat.  It has ICE on it.  Now, I don’t know if this is a Thai Security Official just wearing the hat or if he is an American Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Agent.  No mention of it has been made anywhere that I have seen.

So, Thailand, make a decision.  Either you are fighting the war on terrorism full scale or you are just going through the motions.  Thailand – forget about the impact on tourism and focus on the impact on terrorism.

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The Thailand tourism private sector is a bit worried about year 2012 and they have every right to be.

Coming off the 2011 Bangkok, Thailand floods, which have carried over to 2012 in Southern Thailand, the Tourism industry is not painting the same rosy picture that the Tourism Authority of Thailand is.

Thailand Floods

The Tourism Council of Thailand is accusing the current Thai Government of promoting policy that could be detrimental to the tourism industry.

An article in the Bangkok Post, Tourism industry jittery, provides some insight into what the private tourism sector in Thailand sees for the upcoming year.  Not quite as positive as the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

Operators are concerned a possible resurgence of domestic political violence and knock-on effects from the flood crisis will scare away arrivals in 2012.

It is not a matter of “if” – it is a matter of “when”.  The current Thailand Government is working on changes to the Thailand Constitution that will provide for the return of former Prime Minister and fugitive from the law, Thaksin Shinawatra.  This return will more than likely set off more protests from the Yellow Shirts (elite Bangkokians) and more clashes with the Red Shirts defending him.  It may wind up being worse than the Bangkok, Thailand riots of 2010.

Domestic political uncertainty will likely return as a major risk to tourism in 2012, as many believe the way that Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration is managing the country will trigger a fresh round of political violence.

This would have already begun if the Thailand flooding in 2011 hadn’t taken away so much time from Khun Yingluck.

The private sector has expressed concern over sensitive post-flood issues, especially those related to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Ms Yingluck’s older brother.

With all the talks of late concerning the flood restoration, trillions of baht allocated for this and that, more corruption and graft, the private sector in Thailand needs to be concerned.

As well, the Pheu Thai-led government’s perceived inefficiency and corruption including charges of flood mismanagement have not inspired the private sector’s confidence.

It is not only the Pheu Thai folks that are being accused of inefficiency and corruption – it is across the Thailand Government regardless of party affiliation.

State officials warned of possible bombings during the New Year festivities, while the prolonged troubles in the Deep South have posed a setback for tourism. Another round of political instability and the Thai tourism industry will suffer long-term damage and certainly forfeit its leadership in the Asia-Pacific to neighbouring Malaysia.

Credit to the Thailand Police and Thailand Military for ensuring that the New Year festivities went off without any problems.  The problems in the Deep South have been around going on 9 years so this current Thailand Government cannot be blamed any more than previous governments.  Plus, long term damage has already been done and has built up over the past 10 years.  Thailand’s tourism stock has been on the downswing for a while despite what the Tourism Authority of Thailand would have you believe.

A series of negative factors _ the 2003 Sars epidemic, the 2004 tsunami, the 2006 military coup, the yellow shirt demonstrations and closure of Suvarnabhumi airport in 2008, the global economic crisis in 2009, the red shirt demonstrations and unrest in 2010 and the 2011 flooding _ have made Thailand a risky destination in the eyes of international tour operators.

Agreed, except for the global economic crisis being attached to only 2009.  It should say 2009-present.  Europe and the United States are still in dire straits with millions unemployed and it will take years and years to get out of the mess.

Kongkrit Hiranyakit, the Tourism Council of Thailand’s president for policy and planning, said more and more they promote other destinations in the region instead.

I don’t know who “they” is, but Khun Kongkrit must be referring to other tourism operators that are recommending the competition – the 9 other  ASEAN countries in the area.

Thailand has traditionally been No.1, taking 36% of Asean’s tourism revenue in 2003, followed by Malaysia with 23% and Singapore with 13%. But in 2010, Thailand’s market share dropped to 30% while Malaysia’s rose to 28% and Singapore’s to 15%. This shows the country’s tourism industry is facing a depression.

If the numbers provided are based on the Thailand tourist arrival data from the Department of Tourism, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, or the Tourism Authority of Thailand, then they are probably way worse than what is stated.

The current government seems to be creating negative factors that could lead to conflict and put tourism at further risk. Economic problems are another concern of many operators, especially foreign exchange fluctuations, which affect tourists’ purchasing power.

The currency issue cannot be blamed on current Thailand Government.  The Thailand baht has been artificially strengthened/bolstered by the past two or three  governments.  The baht hasn’t really been fluctuating – it has gotten stronger.  For the United States, the baht rate was 40/42-1 for quite a while and then went to approximately 30-1 and has stayed there for about 4-5 years.  Nothing affected the rate – not tsunamis, political uprisings, nothing.

 ”If local political problems return, we’ll lose our leadership in tourism and our plans to be a gateway to Asean once the Asean Economic Community is formed in 2015,” said Mr Kongkrit.

Your leadership in Thailand tourism has been in jeopardy for years and plans for the AEC 2015 don’t exist.  Thailand, along with its 9 ASEAN brethren, have had about 8 years to prepare for the one big, happy ASEAN Community.  But, Thailand isn’t ready.  Read The Nation – Get ready: ASEAN economic community is coming in 2015.

Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, said the private sector is also concerned about the possibility of more flooding this year.

There already is more flooding this year (2012) in Songkhla, Yala, Pattani, and Nakhon Si Thammarat. But, don’t rely on the Tourism Authority of Thailand for flood situation updates.  Today is 9 January and their latest situation update is from 5 January.  And, it is sugar-coated and not the whole truth.

“We’ve seen no concrete plans to prevent future floods. Negative factors, especially political ones, affect all tourist markets. They’ll obstruct this year’s arrivals target of 18-19 million international tourists this year. We’ll do good just to repeat the 2011 figure this year,” he said.

And you won’t see any concrete plans.  There will be a lot of talk, committees formed, meetings held, contracts awarded, politicians accused of graft, and nothing will be done to fix the flood problems.  There won’t be 18-19 million international tourists this year coming to Thailand and the repeat figure from 2011 is closer to 10 million than 19 million.

Previously, people in many countries did not know about Thailand, but now everyone knows the country from news footage of red shirt protesters, and this has tarnished the national image, said Mr Sisdivachr, adding that the private sector has not seen any management ability on the part of the government.

I don’t know where Khun Sisdivachr gets his information about people in many countries don’t know about Thailand but only know about Thailand now that there was political upheaval in 2010.  The world knows about Thailand from the tsunami in 2004 and from other events like SARS, and the Yellow Shirts closing Suvarnabhumi International Airport in Bangkok.  Don’t just blame the Red Shirts and the current Thailand Government.  Mismanagement in Thailand Government has been going of for many, many years.

The Thai Hotels Association said forward bookings for January remained very low due largely to Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung’s pronouncements about bomb threats during the New Year holiday.

The bomb threats most likely played a part, but the Thailand floods and the possibility of more political fighting are also factors.

This may make it difficult to increase room rates in 2012.

The tourism private sector throughout Thailand needs to LOWER prices if they want to attract foreign tourists.  This is not the time to raise rates.

“We constantly worry about whether new political problems will occur or if the flooding will be repeated. We hope the global economy improves. If any bombs do go off soon, then our hopes for Chinese New Year will be shattered,” said president Prakit Chinamourphong .

Never fear, the Tourism Authority of Thailand to the rescue.  Chinese New Year, a one-day event, is spread out throughout January and February and lasts for 2-3 weeks in various areas of Thailand. Nakhon Sawan is scheduled to celebrate the year of the dragon for 12 days.  Now, if the Tourism Authority of Thailand would update their tourismthailand.org web site or announce the schedule on Facebook, they might get a few Chinese tourists to come to Thailand.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) reported international tourist arrivals increased by 21% year-on-year to 17.1 million in the first 11 months of 2011.

Don’t believe any numbers from the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

For the full year, the TAT projects a figure of 18.8 to 19 million or 18-19% growth in revenue to 724-731 billion baht. For domestic tourism, it expects the figure will drop by 2.6% to 98 million trips on revenue of 408 billion baht due to the massive flooding that damaged tourism sites and hurt tourists’ purchasing power in the fourth quarter of 2011.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand cannot be believed.  TAT’s numbers are double that of reality for positive info and 1/2 that of reality for negatives. And, the Tourism Authority of Thailand has absolutely no way of counting domestic trips or determining how much baht is spent.

In 2012, the TAT targets tourist arrivals of 19.6 million for revenue of 766 billion baht. Domestic tourism is expected to be 19.6 million trips for revenue of 442 billion baht.

Domestic tourism in Thailand 19.6 million?  What happened to cause this steep decline from the 101 million trips in 2010?  Or, should that read 91.6 million trips?  We will never know because no one ever questions a Thailand Government official and no retractions or corrections are ever published by the almost English news media in Thailand.

The TAT revealed the worst flooding in 69 years cost the tourism sector 16 billion baht, with foreign visitors down by 400,000 during the peak season. It also saw domestic tourism revenue decline by 13.5 billion baht on 6 million fewer trips.

First time I have ever seen anyone use “69 years” when talking about the flooding.  Usually it is 50, 70, 100 or a lifetime.  Again, the Tourism Authority of Thailand has no way of knowing how much money is spent by tourists.

TAT governor Surapol Svetasreni said the economic crises in Europe and the US and political problems in the Middle East will pose risks to Thailand’s tourist trade in 2012. The country must therefore pay serious attention to the booming Asian market.

Except, the Tourism Authority of Thailand has failed to market to China.  The biggest numbers of cancellations during the floods were from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.  TAT screwed up big time getting the word out.

Domestic tourism is expected to experience little growth due to Thai tourists spending their money on post-flood home renovations. Higher fuel prices and rumours regarding natural disasters will affect local tourists’ confidence.

Domestic tourism should drop because of the floods, but we will never know since there is no way for the Tourism Authority of Thailand to count domestic trips.

Potential markets this year will be China, India, South Korea, Russia and Australia. New markets will be Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Eastern Europe.

If the Tourism Authority of Thailand knew what it was doing it would be going after China full blast, but, alas, TAT is clueless.

“Western Europe will continue to decline this year due to its debt crisis,” said Mr Surapol.

As will the rest of Europe, America, Australia, and every other country in the world.  The Tourism Authority of Thailand Governor doesn’t understand the term “Global Economy”.

He said the TAT targets high-income people in the golfing, wedding and honeymoon, beauty and healthcare, and eco-tourism sectors.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand doesn’t target any niche groups.  They use the same crappy media showing temples, markets and elephants regardless of who they are supposedly targeting.

As well, it will focus on the leisure market including families, younger adults, women, senior citizens and repeat tourists.

Why not just say that the Tourism Authority of Thailand are spraying and praying they hit any target.

Thailand Tourism 2012 Worries is a post from: Khon Kaen

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