This could be the first piece of investigative journalism that I have seen in an English language online media source and it is all about the numbers that the Tourism Authority of Thailand claims for foreign tourist arrivals.

I have long said that the Tourism Authority of Thailand lies about the number of tourist arrivals and also has absolutely no way to determine how much tourists spend.  The numbers are greatly exaggerated and I have found an online news source to back up what I have been saying for the past two years.

Phuket at Night

The article exposing the Tourism Authority of Thailand, from Phuketwan, Phuket Tourism Swings to China, Russia As Passengers Surge, is actually about tourists arriving from Russia and China in greater numbers.  But, reading the entire article shows that the Tourism Authority of Thailand has ulterior motives.

A remarkable surge in visitors from China now makes that boom economy the leading source by far of Phuket tourists in the first part of 2011, according to figures from the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

There is no surge except for Bangkokian refugees who ran from the flood waters in Bangkok.  Keep reading to see the truth about the Tourism Authority of Thailand numbers.

Russia is also threatening to overwhelm Australia as Phuket’s second prime source of tourists in 2011, the figures show.

Guess the Russians have had enough of Pattaya and are branching out. Must have seen the Tourism Authority of Thailand promoting Phuket as a World Class Destination.

In 2010, revenue generated from tourism totalled 108,446 million baht, according to the TAT figures, with the average international visitor spending 5154.85 baht a day.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand has no way to determine how much any tourist spends.  At best it is a wild ass guess.

The vast majority of international visitors continue to choose resorts or hotels with only 6.3 percent staying at houses or with friends and 3.3 percent using guesthouses, the figures say.

Because the vast majority of international visitors don’t know about the guesthouses and how much cheaper they are.  The Tourism Authority of Thailand doesn’t promote the little guys in Thailand.

A ‘Phuket Tourism Overview’ presented by TAT Phuket director Bangornrat Shinaprayoon to a weekend real estate seminar also raised the question of how many international visitors Phuket actually has each year.

Here is the ulterior motive of the Tourism Authority of Thailand.  Inflate the numbers, increase the cost of real estate, and rip off foreigners.

Official figures from Phuket International Airport showed just over seven million arrivals and departures in 2010, with eight million likely to be reached in 2011.

This is similar to the official numbers posted daily on Twitter from the Airports of Thailand which show a huge disparity from what the Tourism Authority of Thailand reports.

Based on that figure, international visitors would constitute a portion of the four million arrivals, discounting domestic travellers and expats residing on Phuket.

Correct.  Roughly 40-50% of travelers are foreign tourists.  But, not according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

The TAT figures, however, say there were 4,506,026 expat visits to Phuket in 2010. With 965,192 Thai visitors, that makes 5,471,218 ”Guest Arrivals” to Phuket in 2010.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand has no frigging way to know how many expats travel to Phuket.  If I go to Phuket, I buy my ticket online for Thai Air and fly to Bangkok, wait for about one hour, and then connect on a flight to Phuket.  How does the Tourism Authority of Thailand know that I am an expat?  How does the Tourism Authority of Thailand even know that I flew to Bangkok and then on to Phuket?  They don’t. They just make up numbers.

Real figures appear difficult to obtain and inflated or unrealistic figures are sometimes blamed for property developers or resort-builders deciding to go ahead with Phuket projects on the basis of false optimism.

There you have it.  And then the hotel owners, condo owners, store owners, mall owners, shop owners, street vendors, and on and on wonder why they are not making money and why there are no tourists.  Figures difficult to attain since no one questions government officials from the Tourism Authority of Thailand and inflated numbers to make sure they get budget increases annually.

Phuketwan uses the Phuket International Airport arrival and departure figures as a rough guide to tourism trends, putting to one side those additional travellers who arrive by cruise ship or bus.

Using actual numbers instead of the over-inflated Tourism Authority of Thailand figures.

However, given that the airport statistic for total passengers amounts to 3.5 million arrivals and the TAT figure is 5.4 million, it’s little wonder investors and journalists struggle for accurate information.

Gee!  Only a 2 million tourist arrival differential from what the Tourism Authority of Thailand states.  A 64% difference.  Using the same 64% difference for tourist arrival claims by the Tourism Authority of Thailand in Bangkok would bring the supposed 18 million tourist arrivals down to about 11.5 million.  A much more realistic number.

The TAT notes that in 2009, data collection methodology was changed by the Ministry of Tourism and Sport. According to the statistics, Phuket had only 3.375 million ”guest arrivals” that year compared to 5.313 million in 2008, 5.005 million in 2007, 4.499 million in 2006 and a mere 2.510 in 2005, post-tsunami.

Data collection methodology changed?  WTF?  You count the number of cards that each and every tourist has to fill out on the airplane.  There certainly are plenty of staff at the Tourism Authority of Thailand to sit around in between surfing the Internet and count the cards.

The figures provide the following snapshot of year on year increases in the January-August period of 2011 on Phuket from the top 15 markets:

China 227,431 (up 111.68 percent); Australia 172,984 (up 24.17 percent); Russia 160,050 (up 103.72 percent); South Korea 145,829 (up 27.8 percent); Sweden 82,267 (up 17.3 percent); Malaysia 69,145 (up 22.66 percent); Singapore 63,098 (up 6.57 percent); Britain 48,927 (up 7.99 percent); Finland 44,096 (up 28.72 percent); Hong Kong 40,438 (up 36.66 percent); Germany 36,085 (up 1.66 percent); France 28,888 (down 0.9 percent); US 27,623 (up 17.02 percent); Japan 26.099 (up 11.27 percent); Denmark 24,564 (up 4.91 percent).

Of course the Tourism Authority of Thailand only produced their fictitious numbers from January to August and left out the beginning of the floods in Northeastern (Isaan) Thailand in September and the floods in Bangkok in October, November and December.  Numbers for these 4 months are terrible.

Flight numbers for the November 2011- March 2012 Phuket high season indicate that the rise of China and Russia is likely to continue with 49 weekly flights coming from China and 21 from Russia, compared to 15 from Australia.

Only shows that flights have not been cancelled. Doesn’t indicate how many passengers will be aboard.

Hong Kong (31) and Korea (25) are also promising compared to Sweden (15), Denmark (8) and Germany (5). Singapore (63) and Malaysia (43) have larger totals but many of these are connecting flights to other destinations.

And the Tourism Authority of Thailand seems to count these in-transit passengers as tourists.

The property seminar, at Royal Phuket City Hotel in Phuket City, was organised by the Phuket Real Estate Association and chaired by Vice Governor Somkiet Sangkaosutthirak.

And, the bogus numbers were provided by the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

I sincerely hope that Phuketwan continues pursuing the numbers that the Tourism Authority of Thailand profess as the Bangkok Post and The Nation continue to print numbers verbatim from the Governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

Tags: china inflated phuket real estate russia surge TAT tourism authority of thailand tourist arrivals